Shortage of COBOL programmers: a silent risk for companies with legacy systems

October 15, 2026

Created in 1959, COBOL (Common Business-Oriented Language) is often associated with an earlier generation of technology. However, more than six decades later, it remains present in many of the critical systems that support financial operations, insurance services and public services worldwide.

It is estimated that hundreds of billions of lines of COBOL code are still in use, a scale that helps explain why this language continues to play a relevant role in large-scale technology infrastructures.

The real challenge no longer lies solely in the technology itself, but also in the skills required to maintain it. As professionals with decades of experience approach retirement, many organisations face the risk of losing essential technical and functional knowledge needed to understand, maintain and modernise these systems.

Why is there still so much COBOL in production?

The real scale: banking, insurance and Public Administration

COBOL remains particularly relevant in sectors where reliability, processing capacity and data consistency are essential. Over several decades, this language has been used to develop critical systems that continue to support a significant share of the operations of large organisations.

In banking and financial services, COBOL remains present in systems responsible for processing transactions, bank transfers, payments and other core banking operations.

In the insurance sector, it can be found in areas such as policy management, premium calculation and claims processing. Public Administration also relies on COBOL-based systems for processing taxes, pensions, contributions and other large-scale services.

Why has COBOL never been fully replaced?

Over the past few decades, many organisations have assessed or initiated modernisation processes for their COBOL systems. However, completely replacing these platforms can prove to be a complex, time-consuming process involving significant risks.

One of the factors that explains COBOL's continued use is its suitability for processing large volumes of data and business operations, particularly in environments that require transactional processing and high levels of accuracy.

Another factor is the cost and risk associated with migration. A system that has been developed and modified over decades may incorporate thousands of business rules and dependencies that are not always properly documented.

Rewriting or replacing these systems therefore requires a rigorous process of analysis, testing and migration. A failure can have significant consequences for a financial institution, an insurance company or a public-sector organisation.

For this reason, in many cases, the strategy adopted involves the gradual modernisation of existing systems, integrating them with APIs, web applications, cloud services and other more recent technologies. This makes it possible to preserve critical business logic while introducing new capabilities.

The problem: there are fewer and fewer COBOL programmers

Age profile of specialised professionals

A significant proportion of professionals specialised in COBOL built their careers at a time when the language had a much stronger presence in education and the technology market.

Most COBOL programmers belong to the Baby Boomer or Generation X generations. As these professionals leave the workforce, organisations risk losing not only COBOL expertise, but also something potentially more difficult to replace: the accumulated knowledge of the systems themselves and the business rules they incorporate.

Few educational institutions provide training in this area

The education ecosystem has moved away from COBOL over the past three decades. Universities, polytechnics and technology training programmes now tend to prioritise languages and technologies such as Python, JavaScript, Java and others associated with contemporary software development.

As a result, many professionals enter the market with little or no exposure to COBOL and mainframe environments, widening the gap between the knowledge required to maintain certain critical systems and the skills available in the market.

What risks does the shortage of COBOL specialists pose?

The continued use of COBOL does not, in itself, represent a problem. The risk arises when an organisation depends on critical systems but no longer has access to the skills required to understand, maintain and modernise them.

Dependence on specialised professionals

Some organisations depend on a small group of programmers with sufficient experience to analyse, maintain and modify COBOL applications.

When this knowledge is concentrated among only a few people, the departure or unavailability of one of these professionals can create significant dependency and increase operational risk.

Business continuity risk

When systems support essential operations, a technical failure can have significant consequences.

A lack of professionals with specific knowledge of the application and its underlying business logic can make it more difficult to respond quickly, particularly in the event of incidents, urgent changes or interventions involving critical processes.

Greater recruitment challenges and cost pressures

A market with fewer specialised professionals makes recruitment more challenging and can increase the cost of acquiring and retaining these skills.

Organisations may also become more dependent on specialised external resources to maintain existing systems or support modernisation projects.

Loss of operational knowledge

Many COBOL systems have been developed and modified over several decades and do not always have complete or up-to-date documentation.

When professionals with in-depth knowledge of these systems leave the workforce without a structured knowledge transfer process in place, much more than knowledge of a programming language can be lost.

Business rules, dependencies between applications, exceptions introduced over the years and knowledge of critical processes that were never formally documented can all be lost.

How can companies reduce this risk?

Internal training and knowledge transfer

One approach is to bring senior professionals with COBOL expertise and knowledge of existing systems together with programmers who can progressively ensure their continuity.

Structured mentoring, documentation and knowledge transfer programmes can help preserve technical and functional expertise before more experienced professionals leave the workforce, reducing dependency on individual specialists.

Partnerships with specialised IT consulting companies

Working with specialised partners can complement the skills of internal teams and help provide additional capacity to maintain critical systems.

These partnerships can also support gradual modernisation projects, from exposing functionality through RESTful APIs to integrating legacy systems with cloud applications and services.

Modernisation tools and Artificial Intelligence

New analysis, automation and Artificial Intelligence tools are also creating new possibilities for managing COBOL systems.

These technologies can support tasks such as analysing and documenting existing code, identifying dependencies, understanding application logic or preparing transformation processes for more modern architectures.

However, the use of these tools does not eliminate the need for specialised expertise. In critical systems, results must be understood and validated by professionals capable of assessing both the code and the functional context in which it operates.

Could COBOL be a hidden opportunity for those starting a career in IT?

Although many professionals starting a career in IT look for opportunities in areas such as Web Development, Data Science or Machine Learning, the COBOL ecosystem represents a different and less explored specialisation.

An area with specialised demand

The decline in the number of professionals with COBOL experience does not mean that the technology is disappearing.

As long as organisations remain dependent on these systems, there will continue to be a need for professionals capable of understanding, maintaining and modernising them.

For those willing to develop skills in this area, this reality can represent an opportunity to specialise in critical systems and legacy technologies.

Less competition

While certain areas of software development attract large numbers of candidates, COBOL remains a more specific technology niche.

However, differentiation does not come solely from knowing the language's syntax. The real value lies in the ability to understand complex systems, transactional processing, business rules and the technology environments in which these applications operate.

Combining COBOL with modern technologies

One of the most valuable skills is the ability to work at the intersection of legacy systems and modern technologies.

Knowing COBOL while also understanding APIs, cloud, systems integration and modern architectures makes it possible to participate in modernisation projects and help organisations connect existing platforms to new applications and services.

For professionals at the beginning of their careers, learning COBOL can therefore be a way to develop a distinctive specialisation. More than learning a language created several decades ago, it means acquiring the skills to work on one of today's most relevant technology challenges: modernising critical systems without compromising business continuity.